研究主題：credit spreads · 產生時間：2026-03-11 10:01:44 UTC
本次研究迴圈共進行 5 輪， 產生 4 個假說， 其中 0 個通過驗證、 0 個被拒絕、 4 個待驗證。
總耗時 0 秒， 消耗 0 tokens。
| 輪次 | Agent 數 | Agents | 假說數 | 耗時 | Tokens |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 4 | cs_results, optimizer, researcher, risk-auditor | 0 | — | — |
| R2 | 3 | optimizer, researcher, risk-auditor | 0 | — | — |
| R3 | 3 | optimizer, researcher, risk-auditor | 0 | — | — |
| R4 | 2 | devil, risk-auditor | 2 | — | — |
| R5 | 2 | portfolio-mgr, risk-auditor | 2 | — | — |
| 狀態 | 維度 | 信心 | 假說 |
|---|---|---|---|
| pending | final_verdict | 0.9700 | Credit spread research should be permanently closed |
| pending | validation | 0.9700 | Credit spreads are structurally negative EV for retail traders |
| 狀態 | 維度 | 信心 | 假說 |
|---|---|---|---|
| pending | portfolio_construction | 0.9700 | Final recommendation: 100% passive index investment |
| pending | meta_conclusion | 0.9700 | Research complete - no further options strategy testing recommended |
backtest_crash — Script backtest_0.py timed out after 120s| Agent | 方法 | 成功率 | 提出數 | 確認數 | 樣本數 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| risk-auditor | final_verdict | 0.00% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| devil | validation | 0.00% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| portfolio-mgr | portfolio_construction | 0.00% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| risk-auditor | meta_conclusion | 0.00% | 1 | 0 | 1 |